Rising energy costs, geopolitical instability and tightening environmental regulation are reshaping how UK businesses approach cooling and refrigeration systems. At the same time, demand for air conditioning and cooling is increasing, driven by warmer summers and growing pressure on buildings to maintain safe, stable indoor conditions.
While much attention is on installing new systems, a more significant shift is happening behind the scenes: the refrigerants that power these systems are changing.
Rising energy costs are reshaping operational decisions
Energy prices in the UK remain well above pre-crisis levels, with ongoing volatility in global gas markets continuing to affect costs for both households and businesses.
Refrigerant prices have risen sharply in recent years, in some cases by as much as 60%, largely due to supply constraints, phasedown regulations and tightening market availability of high GWP refrigerants. Because gas remains a key part of the UK energy mix, geopolitical disruption and supply instability can quickly feed through into higher operating costs across commercial and industrial sectors.
As a result, long-term energy planning is becoming more complex. It is no longer just about efficiency at installation, but resilience against future price fluctuations. This uncertainty is also influencing decisions around refrigeration and cooling systems, particularly in relation to long-term servicing, maintenance and refrigerant availability.
Why refrigerant choice is becoming a strategic decision
Refrigerants were once treated as a technical detail in system design. Today, they are a strategic consideration.
Low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants and natural refrigerants are gaining attention because they reduce environmental impact while aligning with evolving regulation. At the same time, high GWP refrigerants are being phased down under UK and European policy, with tighter restrictions expected over time. This creates a more complex environment for designers, facilities managers and asset owners. The key question is no longer just what works now, but what will remain viable in the future.
Low GWP refrigerants and the shift away from legacy systems
Low GWP synthetic refrigerants, including newer HFO blends, are being adopted as transitional options. They offer familiar performance while significantly reducing environmental impact compared with older HFCs.
However, they still sit within a changing regulatory framework, where long-term availability and compliance are not guaranteed. As a result, many organisations are now considering alternatives that offer greater long-term certainty. This is where natural refrigerants are becoming increasingly relevant.
The rise of natural refrigerants in modern systems
Natural refrigerants such as ammonia (NH3), carbon dioxide (CO2) and hydrocarbons like propane (R290) are being used more widely across commercial and industrial applications. These refrigerants have very low or near-zero global warming potential and are not subject to the same phase-down pressures as synthetic options.
Each has specific design considerations. Ammonia offers high efficiency but requires strict safety controls. CO2 operates at high pressures and is widely used in commercial refrigeration. Hydrocarbons deliver strong efficiency but require careful system design due to flammability. Despite these factors, the direction of travel is clear: natural refrigerants are becoming a key part of long-term cooling strategies across multiple sectors.
How energy markets are reinforcing the shift
The transition to low GWP and natural refrigerants is being reinforced by wider energy market volatility. Ongoing instability in global gas supply continues to influence UK energy pricing, creating uncertainty in operational budgets and long-term forecasting. Because energy costs remain closely tied to gas markets, businesses are increasingly exposed to fluctuations that affect running costs.
This has strengthened the focus on efficiency, resilience and long-term cost stability when selecting cooling and refrigeration systems. Refrigerant choice is now part of that wider financial and operational decision-making process.
Moving beyond compliance towards resilience
Current regulation focuses on reducing environmental impact through phasedown of high GWP refrigerants and tighter controls.
However, compliance is only part of the challenge. Businesses also need systems that remain efficient, serviceable and cost-effective across their full lifecycle. This requires a forward-looking approach that considers regulatory direction, environmental performance and long-term refrigerant availability together.
The future of cooling is about more than systems
As cooling demand continues to grow across the UK, investment in new and upgraded systems will increase. But long-term performance will depend on more than equipment alone. Understanding low GWP refrigerants and natural refrigerants is becoming essential for managing risk, controlling costs and ensuring operational resilience in a changing UK energy and regulatory landscape.
Read the white paper to explore the refrigerant market changes businesses need to understand now.
